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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author (Kaleb Corfield - @KLRisDead on Twitter).
They do not necessarily reflect the opinions or views of NowMedia.
Well, it’s late February which means it’s time for the members of the most self-important industry in the Western world to gather for the most vulgar celebration of excess in the calendar year.
That's right, this Sunday is the Academy Awards: that magical night when all of your least favourite celebrities squeeze themselves into $100,000 outfits after voluntarily fasting for the past month.
If the rollout is any indication this year promises to be even worse than most.
So if against your better judgement you decide to tune in and witness what promises to be a trainwreck then you might as well be informed on the nominees...and if you don’t like these (objectively correct) opinions you can at least win some money (legally) betting with these (expert) picks.
Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali - Green Book (Outstanding performance in an otherwise dreadful movie.)
- Adam Driver - BlacKKKlansman (Wrong guy was nominated from this one. Should’ve been Topher Grace as David Duke.)
- Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born (Sam Elliott is perfectly cast in the role of Sam Elliott.)
- Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Likeable, but did anyone actually see this?)
- Sam Rockwell - Vice (Nearly unrecognizable as noted war criminal George W. Bush.)
Who Will Win: Green Book is not a very good film at all, however, Ali will probably win his second Best Supporting Actor award for his portrayal of the erudite pianist Dr. Don Shirley.
Who Could Win: *Maybe* one of the Sams can win due to their popularity amongst voters, and the bookies have Richard E. Grant as the second favourite, but I honestly don’t see Ali losing.
Who Should Win: Of those nominated Ali would be the deserved winner. However, the snubs of Daniel Kaluuya (Widows) and Steven Yeun (Burning) are indefensible. Oozing charisma and exuding understated menace, both actors were remarkable as brooding baddies.
Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams - Vice (Accomplished performance as noted lizard person Lynne Cheney.)
- Marina de Tavira - Roma (Good performance but no shot at winning.)
- Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk (Bookies favourite for a reason.)
- Emma Stone - The Favourite (Surprisingly great comic timing from a non-comic actress.)
- Rachel Weisz - The Favourite (Weisz is like a swiss watch. Note perfect as always.)
Who Will Win: Regina King is the favourite and it would be deserved, however, this category is wide open so look for a surprise.
Who Could Win: Rachel Weisz is the most likely to win if it isn’t King. In fact, I may put my money where my mouth is.
Who Should Win: Weisz has had a stellar career and this may be one of her finest performances as she manages to convey threatening and vulnerable while being really funny.
Lead Actress
- Yalitza Aparicio - Roma (Great performance from the newcomer.)
- Glenn Close - The Wife (Sure, why not? Not even sure if Close herself has seen this movie.)
- Olivia Colman - The Favourite (Superlative as the erratic Queen Anne in this darkly comic role.)
- Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born (Impressive performance from Gaga playing Gaga.)
- Melissa McCarthy - Can You Forgive Me? (Can’t remember if there’s any pratfalls in this one.)
Who Will Win: Glenn Close is the bookies favourite and has built up plenty of goodwill with voters over the years which should be enough to earn her a de facto lifetime achievement award. HOWEVER, I have a feeling that Olivia Colman will make a late push for the win.
Who Could Win: It’s honestly a dead heat between Close and Colman. Gaga is the only possible upset and might be worth a small wager.
Who Should Win: Olivia Colman manages to steal the show in a film featuring three awards-worthy performances. A real tour de force.
Lead Actor
- Christian Bale - Vice (Another amazing physical transformation. This time playing reptilian murderer Dick Cheney.)
- Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born (Would someone please get this man a lozenge? Some sunscreen? Anything?!?!)
- Willem Dafoe - At Eternity’s Gate (Typically brilliant as Vincent Van Gogh.)
- Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody (Who needs to act when you can wear a wig and prosthetic teeth with the best of ‘em?)
- Viggo Mortensen - Green Book (Terrible impression of a Sopranos bit player. Fuhgeddaboudit!)
Who Will Win: Malek won the Golden Globe and the SAG award so he shouldn’t be affected by the controversy surrounding the film’s director Bryan Singer. The performance itself is a kitschy kind of karaoke or cosplay which usually plays well with Academy voters.
Who Could Win: Bale’s ability to transform and fully disappear into all of his roles means that you can never count him out of the awards discussion. However, the unflattering portrayal of Cheney could be considered “too political” for some voters. Could still be worth a small wager.
Who Should Win: The best performance of the year by a country mile was Ethan Hawke in First Reformed. Hawke is mesmerizing as a priest who is radicalized when faced with the realities of climate change and the corporate greed that underpins it. Sadly, he was snubbed.
Best Director
- Spike Lee - BlacKKKlansman (Not really sure why this is the film he’s finally recognized for. Mediocre at best.)
- Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War (If you think the Polish auteur can win I have a monorail to sell you.)
- Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite (The most idiosyncratic director working in the mainstream at the moment. Will win eventually but not this year.)
- Alfonso Cuarón - Roma (Only previous winner nominated.)
- Adam McKay - Vice (Shamefully overlooked in past years for films such as Step Brothers and The Other Guys.)
Who Will Win: I can’t see anyone other than Cuarón winning the award. The nominations were fairly inexplicable leaving him as the only real contender.
Who Could Win: Spike Lee could win for recognition of his career achievements and Adam McKay could win as a political statement by the Academy, however, I think both are highly unlikely.
Who Should Win: The nominations were so bungled by the Academy that really the only nominees outside of Cuarón who should even be in the discussion are Lanthimos and Pawlikowski. Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Steve McQueen (Widows), and Paul Schrader (First Reformed) should all feel rightly snubbed.
Best Picture
- Black Panther (The Academy tried to add a Best Popular Film award for this movie to win before they got laughed at online and changed their mind.)
- BlacKKKlansman (Not great Spike! Go watch Sorry to Bother You instead.)
- Bohemian Rhapsody (Guys playing dress up and singing karaoke in cheap looking wigs. High school drama level performances. Just watch A Star Is Born instead.)
- The Favourite (Dark, hilarious, and really really weird. Great performances from the entire cast. Lanthimos can’t seem to make a bad film. One of our greatest living filmmakers.)
- Green Book (Ugh, this one was rough. Other than Mahershala Ali’s performance there’s not much worth watching. Cloying, unfunny, and worst of all, craven. Seems like it was written by a child. A genuinely poor film.)
- Roma (Technically brilliant coming of age film. A tad boring but the black and white cinematography looks beautiful.)
- A Star Is Born (Excellent twist on an old favourite. Hollywood needs to make more adult blockbusters like this instead of more PG superhero retreads.)
- Vice (Tells the story of the Iraq war and isn’t afraid to name names. Sometimes felt a bit like a history lesson. Surprising political bite for a Hollywood film.)
What Will Win: The bookies say Roma. My head says Roma. Everything points to Roma...BUT...I have a feeling that Green Book is somehow going to bamboozle enough voters to win the big prize. Netflix could have locked up the award for Roma with a stronger campaign but they left an opening and with preferential balloting it looks like Green Book will be the film to benefit from their carelessness. If Green Book does win, it will be the worst film to ever win the Best Picture Oscar. Yes, worse than Crash and Driving Miss Daisy.
What Could Win: If Bohemian Rhapsody didn’t have Bryan Singer’s name attached to it then it would have a (totally undeserved) shot at an upset, however, I don’t see the Academy wanting to deal with that headache. There’s a small chance the whole show could become a performative political statement for the #Resistance and if that happens then Vice could win but I don’t see that happening.
What Should Win: The Favourite is the best film nominated but there’s no way the Academy would choose it to be the exemplar of their industry. That excuse doesn’t apply to the excellent A Star Is Born which seems to be inexplicably out of the running despite the fact that it is a big Hollywood picture with an A-List cast. When I left the theatre after watching A Star Is Born I was certain it would sweep the awards. Now it seems like it will be lucky to win anything other than Best Song. Strange year.
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