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It's not news that Kelowna house prices are on the decline because of jacked up mortgage interest rates, skyrocketing inflation and a major bout of consumer uncertainty.
What would be news is if anyone knew how far and how long the tumble will be.
Since no one has a crystal ball, all we have right now are predictions, forecasts, prognostications and downright guesses.
"Does this mean this is the bottom?" asked ReMax Kelowna realtor Colin Krieg while discussing the drop in Kelowna house prices.
"It's too soon to say. But, my gut feeling tells me that we won't know until spring."
So, that could mean five or more months of slipping prices.
Other experts have said the same and some have estimated that, in total, Kelowna prices will dive 20%.
That means the benchmark selling price of a typical single-family home in the city could end up at $905,440 in the spring of 2023 from its record-high of $1,131,800 in April 2022.
For a townhouse that would be $633,200 from its record-high of $820,000 in May 2022.
And for condo that translates to $446,160 from the record high of $557,700 in April 2022.
While a 20% devaluation sounds dramatic, house prices in Kelowna are still above where they were a year ago.
After all, prices went up an average of 30% throughout 2021 and into early 2022.
So, Kelowna's housing market is still historically expensive and many people still can't afford to buy.
For instance, even at potential bottom-out in spring, the possible $905,440 benchmark selling price of a single-family home will be way more than $790,000 it was in February 2021 before the run up and the $415,000 it was a decade ago.
We're bringing all this up again because the Association of Interior Realtors just released trend-indicating statistics for October.
Sales in Kelowna are half of what they were a year ago, with 126 single-family homes, 45 townhouses and and 94 condominiums selling in the month.
Benchmark selling prices are $997,000, $767,500 and $490,600, respectively.
Association of Interior Realtors president Lyndi Cruickshank is putting a positive spin on the slowdown in sales and drop in prices.
"Unlike the last two years or so where we saw buyers' and sellers' expectations drastically unaligned from each other, a shift from the frenzy earlier this year coupled with winter seasonal slowdown is bringing some equilibrium to the market amid rising interest rates," she said.
"Motivated buyers' and sellers' expectations are able to come closer together, resulting in a much more positive home buying and selling experience."
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