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If yesterday's housing forecast by Canada Mortgage and Housing is giving you nightmares, Elton Ash said you can wake up from it.
He describes the historic recession predicted by CMHC.
The federal corporation is predicting a sharp drop in home prices nation-wide of up to 29% and a crash in housing starts by as much as 70%. But RE/MAX Western Canada's Elton Ash is shaking his head.
"Unfounded and unwarranted," he labelled the CMHC predictions. Ash said springtime pent up demand is already noticeable despite the pandemic and his assessment is not near as dire.
"We will likely see somewhere, depending on the market, a five to ten percent price depreciation," he asserts. "Interestingly Vancouver saw a 2 and a half percent price appreciation for the month of April."
Ash's take is that we're going to see historically low inventory but an increasing demand. "So that's going to mute any economic effect that a recession could have on home prices," he explained.
The RE/MAX analyst also said Kelowna itself tends to be somewhat immune to negative trends because it remains attractive to buyers regardless of the economic cycles.
"Kelowna is a destination market," he said.
However, he does have some words of caution for people who see a drop in prices as an enticement to enter the real estate market for the first time.
"My first advice to anyone buying their first home, is make sure you do it within your financial means," he warned, describing interest rates as an "Achilles heel".
"If they go up two or three percent a lot of people are going to be maxed-out."
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